Messy Fund Update
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Fund / Signal update · 25 July 2026 · vnext-2026-07-24
Weekly workflow proof for Guru micro test funds on Base (base01, base02, base04, base05). Screening prepares evidence; the Chair decides; the system records the resolution; only then can execution mutate the book. Macro and narrative below are the postures those sessions used — not a live market refresh at publish time.
This week at a glance
- 37 council sessions across 4 micro funds — 20 executed.
- Week regime path: Neutral (N) all week — Effective macro regime is N with fresh coverage and 80% confidence.
- Narrative tape (session-frozen): Across 16 active narrative(s), 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES ranges from SocialFi at +51.8pp to Layer 2 (L2) at -16.0pp.
- base02 NAV $44.74 (-6.1% 7d, 6 exec / 0 hold).
- base05 NAV $46.97 (-5.8% 7d, 4 exec / 0 hold).
- SWARM led aggregate screens this week — a candidate signal, not an automatic trade.
Across the councils
- Several Chairs flagged soft narrative tape — a large share of beta book value sat in narratives with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES. (base01, base02, base04, base05; 4 funds).
- Posture moves stayed partial — Chairs sized with cautious conviction rather than jumping fully to target bucket midpoints. (base01, base02, base05; 3 funds).
What's new in the app
- Fund pages in the app now include full council minutes — open any fund and tap Council to read what the portfolio committee debated, what the Chair decided, and whether trades were executed. How the AI investment council works →
- We publish four Guru micro test funds (base01, base02, base04, base05). base04 and base05 joined on 10 July with distinct token universes. Every change on those test funds goes through screening, council review, and signed execution — the same path future AI-managed funds will use.
Week regime · what the councils used
Regime path
Neutral (N) all week
Closing macro brief
Neutral (N) · as of 2026-07-25
Effective macro regime is N with fresh coverage and 80% confidence.
Soft narrative tape
Across 16 active narrative(s), 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES ranges from SocialFi at +51.8pp to Layer 2 (L2) at -16.0pp.
- 100.0% of beta book value (attributed by primary narrative) sits in narratives with negative trailing 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES.
Micro funds · week scan
| Fund | NAV | 7d | Sessions | Exec | Hold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| base01 | $91.32 | -4.0% | 13 | 5 | 0 | Council |
| base02 | $44.74 | -6.1% | 10 | 6 | 0 | Council |
| base04 | $45.06 | -4.1% | 9 | 5 | 0 | Council |
| base05 | $46.97 | -5.8% | 5 | 4 | 0 | Council |
base01 — council & book
No trades executed this session because the operator cancelled the execution package during route safety review after a simulation failure, leaving the fund's holdings unchanged.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · Sat target · 13 sessions
Week net · Cash 33.3% → 20% · Base 26.1% → 20.5% · High-beta 40.6% → 59.5%
Tue exec rsc at 14.4% NAV with fresh rank 1 vs aggregate rank 2 is a concentration exposure; a trim is directionally supported by PM consensus but sizing of the trim should be bounded, not open-ended.
Closing session
Cash 21.5% → 20% · Base 20% → 20.5% · High-beta 58.5% → 59.5%
With a mixed EMA alignment and cautious conviction, only a partial move (roughly 30-40% of the way) toward the regime target midpoint is warranted; no shock cap is active, so positioning relies…
- Zero unfunded new-entry capacity ($0.89 deployable) means any addition must be strictly sell-funded by a recorded exit/reduction; verify funding chain at certification.
- 60.1% of beta book sits in narratives with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES — broad narrative headwind, not company-specific.
- Macro EMA signal is mixed/non-directional (30d below 3d/7d), supporting only the bounded ratified move, not aggressive rotation.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 25 July 2026
base02 — council & book
The council session for MFV-BASE02 failed before it reached a resolution, so no trades were executed and no bucket-sizing or allocation decision was made.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · Sat target · 10 sessions
Week net · Cash 26.8% → 19.5% · Base 25.8% → 19.8% · High-beta 47.4% → 60.8%
Tue exec 72.7% of beta book value sits in narratives (chiefly DeFi) with negative trailing 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES; additions should be weighed for diversification benefit, not treated as a fix.
Closing session
Cash 21.9% → 19.5% · Base 19.6% → 19.8% · High-beta 58.5% → 60.8%
Conviction is cautious and trend alignment is mixed, so only a partial (~35%) move toward the target midpoint is appropriate rather than a full reallocation; no shock cap is active, so the effective…
- Capacity is near-zero: only $1.03 deployable and one new-entry slot; any addition beyond a sell-funded same-sleeve replacement is infeasible this session.
- Ratified posture caps cash reduction at -2.4%, base +0.1%, high beta +2.3%; no role should propose bucket weights outside cash 19.5%/base 19.8%/high beta 60.8%.
- 61.7% of beta book value sits in narratives with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES, a structural headwind independent of any single rotation decision.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 25 July 2026
base04 — council & book
No trades executed this session because the operator cancelled the execution package during route safety review after a simulation failure, leaving the certified target unrealized.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · Sat target · 9 sessions
Week net · Cash 42.9% → 39.2% · Base 39.2% → 24.7% · High-beta 17.9% → 36.1%
Tue exec Sleeve is 100% concentrated in narratives (meme, primarily) showing negative trailing 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES — an add or hold here compounds narrative-level headwind rather than diversifying it.
Closing session
Cash 42.2% → 39.2% · Base 26.7% → 24.7% · High-beta 31.1% → 36.1%
Analyst recommendation exceeded session movement limits and was clamped by validation.
- Beta book value is 100% concentrated in narratives with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES, adding directional narrative risk on top of the mandated beta increase.
- Deployable capacity is minimal ($2.25); any incumbent increase beyond sell-funded proceeds requires an explicit funding leg, not fresh cash.
- Beta book value remains 100% concentrated in narratives with negative 30d momentum versus TOTAL3ES even after this session's adds; that concentration risk was not resolved by adding REKT and RUSSELL, both…
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 25 July 2026
base05 — council & book
The rebalance executed and reconciled, exiting adm, adding otto and instaclaw, and trimming brain and swarm, all within a fund posture shift toward about 39.5% cash, 21.5% base, and 39% high beta from roughly 42.4/22.6/35.1 beforehand; realized post-execution weights are not yet available, and small residual balances remain in brain and swarm from cost-suppressed sell legs.
Week strip: Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · 5 sessions
Week net · Cash 46.4% → 39.5% · Base 27.6% → 21.5% · High-beta 25.9% → 39%
Wed exec Macro alignment is mixed with cautious conviction; 30d EMA lags 7d/3d, so the ratified +5% high-beta move should be executed at the low end of capacity rather than aggressively front-loaded.
Closing session
Cash 42.4% → 39.5% · Base 22.6% → 21.5% · High-beta 35.1% → 39%
Conviction is cautious and EMA alignment is mixed, so only a limited, partial move toward the regime target midpoint is appropriate; the shift stays well inside the deterministic movement caps…
- EMA alignment is mixed with day-over-day deltas turning negative (7d vs 3d -0.28, 30d vs 7d -2.22), arguing for a measured, reversible step rather than full transition to target range.
- Underlying macro indicators are split: liquidity/yield-curve supportive vs. weak ETF outflows and softening stablecoin mcap — conviction should stay cautious this session.
- 100% of high-beta book value sits in AI Agents/DeFAI narrative context with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES, concentrating narrative risk on any beta increase.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 25 July 2026
Aggregate signal · Risk reject
What this teaches the future Fund Agent
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