Messy Fund Update
Archived snapshot
Fund / Signal update · 15 August 2026 · vnext-2026-07-24
Weekly workflow proof for Guru micro test funds on Base (base01, base02, base04, base05, base06). Screening prepares evidence; the Chair decides; the system records the resolution; only then can execution mutate the book. Macro and narrative below are the postures those sessions used, not a live market refresh at publish time.
Custody / provider
These Messy-managed books use the Guru Lotus vault adapter on Base for custody and share accounting. Messy’s engine runs research, council decisioning, and trade construction; capital sits in Guru’s vault contracts. Our trading key can trade but cannot withdraw, a limit enforced by the vault contracts, not our software. Provider-side contract failure is venue risk. Keys live in Turnkey; our backend never holds key material.
For the blast-radius map (engine vs custody vs token), see Custody Broke. The Engine Didn’t..
This week at a glance
- 30 council sessions across 5 micro funds — 21 executed, 4 holds.
- Week regime path: Risk-off (R-) → Neutral (N) — Effective macro regime is N with fresh coverage and 80% confidence.
- Narrative tape (session-frozen): Across 16 active narrative(s), 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES ranges from SocialFi at +30.1pp to NFT at -20.9pp.
- base02 NAV $36.8 (-12.6% 7d, 5 exec / 0 hold).
- base01 NAV $89.66 (-6.8% 7d, 5 exec / 0 hold).
- COOKIE led aggregate screens this week — a candidate signal, not an automatic trade.
What's new in the app
- Fund pages in the app now include full council minutes — open any fund and tap Council to read what the portfolio committee debated, what the Chair decided, and whether trades were executed. How the AI investment council works →
- We publish five Guru micro test funds (base01, base02, base04, base05, base06). base04 and base05 joined on 10 July; base06 began council meetings in the week of 1 August. Every change on those test funds goes through screening, council review, and signed execution — the same path future AI-managed funds will use.
- This week we specialized the screening playbooks on base04, base05, and base06: meme-nano, asymmetric-micro, and liquid-control. base01 and base02 keep the shared momentum + social templates. Screens still stop at ideas — council and execution decide size, venue, and fills. Rolling 7-day aggregates can mix old and new context until the new playbooks have a full week of runs.
Week regime · what the councils used
Regime path
Risk-off (R-) → Neutral (N)
Closing macro brief
Neutral (N) · as of 2026-08-15
Effective macro regime is N with fresh coverage and 80% confidence.
Soft narrative tape
Across 16 active narrative(s), 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES ranges from SocialFi at +30.1pp to NFT at -20.9pp.
- 100.0% of beta book value (attributed by primary narrative) sits in narratives with negative trailing 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES.
Micro funds · week scan
| Fund | NAV | 7d | Sessions | Exec | Hold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| base01 | $89.66 | -6.8% | 9 | 5 | 0 | Council |
| base02 | $36.8 | -12.6% | 5 | 5 | 0 | Council |
| base04 | $40.26 | -4.3% | 5 | 5 | 0 | Council |
| base05 | $46.93 | +0.6% | 6 | 4 | 1 | Council |
| base06 | $23.97 | +1.1% | 5 | 2 | 3 | Council |
base01 — council & book
The rebalance executed and reconciled, trimming Mrdn, exiting BID, and adding TOBY, ACU, and UP while holding TIBBIR, within a fund posture ratified at roughly cash 27%, base 40%, and high beta 33%; realized post-execution weights are not yet available to confirm against that target.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri target · Sat exec · 9 sessions
Week net · Cash 27.2% → 27% · Base 33.2% → 40% · High-beta 39.5% → 33%
Tue exec flay carries 32.6% of a two-position sleeve — outsized single-name concentration that a same-size reduce/trim only partially addresses.
Closing session
Cash 26.7% → 27% · Base 40.6% → 40% · High-beta 32.7% → 33%
Recommended movement is cash +0.3%, base -0.6%, high beta +0.4%; each change remains inside the configured session movement caps of cash 5.0%, base 5.0%, and high beta 5.0%.
- Book concentration (top-1 18.1% NAV, effective N 2.45) sits below the 2-10 breadth band the sleeve target supports; this recurs each session until addressed and is not itself a same-day reversal concern.
- tibbir RSI-short at 75.4 is entry-timing information only per the measured-axes study; not a basis to trim a name whose fresh/aggregate rank (2/2) still supports the thesis.
- PM seats disagree on mrdn: exit_strategist and macro_tactical favor a trim on coverage-gap/concentration grounds while others hold it in position_intent unchanged \u2014 sizing of the trim matters more than…
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 15 August 2026
base02 — council & book
The council's rebalance executed and reconciled this session, reducing flay, increasing mrdn, and trimming rwa.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · 5 sessions
Week net · Cash 26.9% → 29.3% · Base 33.9% → 31.7% · High-beta 39.1%
Tue exec Mrdn's flagged +763bps route gap is a real execution ceiling on any full exit; size or stage the sell accordingly.
Closing session
Cash 29.3% · Base 31.7% · High-beta 39.1%
No bucket movement is recommended because current allocation already satisfies the computed posture.
- rwa's RelStr collapse (-24) and disappearance from the fresh screen is one session of data; guidance requires sustained deterioration across several sessions or a hard trigger before treating it as an exit…
- flay was reduced last session; a further reduction now needs a named thesis change beyond aggregate absence, which has not been clearly stated by the proposing PM.
- avnt has zero aggregate history, no measured ATR/dist-to-high/RSI data, and only fresh-run conviction — appropriate for advisory sizing caution only, not a block.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 15 August 2026
base04 — council & book
The rebalance executed and reconciled: cocoro was exited and taboshi entered with toby and apu trimmed, while the wolf leg was left as an unresolved residual due to a missing execution price.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue exec · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · 5 sessions
Week net · Cash 28.9% → 27.7% · Base 34.5% → 36.6% · High-beta 36.6% → 35.6%
Tue exec 100% of high-beta book value sits in narratives (Meme-primary) with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES — a structural narrative headwind, not a single-token issue.
Closing session
Cash 27.7% · Base 36.6% · High-beta 35.6%
No bucket movement is recommended because current allocation already satisfies the computed posture.
- Sleeve is fully invested; any new entry must be funded by a recorded reduction/exit within mvs-base04-1, not by uncommitted capacity.
- Cocoro's coverage has gone dark (absent from latest fresh run, only 3/7 aggregate appearances) — directionally supports exit but paper trail is thin, size the confidence accordingly.
- Apu's route gap is flagged at +2404bps; an exit there would consume most of the position's value in execution cost and is not economically supportable this session.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 15 August 2026
base05 — council & book
The council's rebalance executed and reconciled, trimming jarvis and adding taboshi within an unchanged fund posture of roughly 28% cash, 35% base, and 37% high beta.
Week strip: Mon exec · Tue hold · Wed exec · Thu exec · Fri exec · 6 sessions
Week net · Cash 28.2% → 27.7% · Base 34.1% → 34.9% · High-beta 37.7% → 37.3%
Tue hold Dickbutt was already reduced last session; a full exit today compounds execution friction within roughly one day unless the deterioration case (coverage loss + multi-session score decline) is explicitly the…
Closing session
Cash 27.7% · Base 34.9% · High-beta 37.3%
No bucket movement is recommended because current allocation already satisfies the computed posture.
- Taboshi ATR% 24h is 12.9%, meaningfully higher than jarvis (3.1%) or up (5.0%) — sizing should reflect this volatility differential.
- 856-up trend_momentum add has no aggregate screening history depth comparable to taboshi (only 2/7 runs) — thinner durability basis.
- Jarvis trim funds multiple candidate adds across seats; council must ensure decomposition is sell jarvis→reserve, then reserve→buy legs, not a direct swap framing.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 15 August 2026
base06 — council & book
The rebalance executed and reconciled, adding a small link position funded by trimming omi while tbtc, wbtc, and tibbir held unchanged.
Week strip: Mon hold · Tue hold · Wed hold · Thu exec · Fri exec · 5 sessions
Week net · Cash 35.7% → 31.4% · Base 39% → 38.8% · High-beta 25.3% → 29.8%
Tue hold Capacity is compressed: only $1.18 unfunded deployable and one net new-entry slot; any addition beyond the reserve-funded omi top-up competes for the same thin capacity.
Closing session
Cash 31.4% · Base 38.8% · High-beta 29.8%
No bucket movement is recommended because current allocation already satisfies the computed posture.
- Sell-fundable capacity is only $7.03 against a fully invested book; any new entry (link, ethfi) must be funded via an explicit incumbent reduction/exit decomposed into sell-to-reserve then reserve-to-buy…
- Macro regime is neutral with mixed EMA momentum (7d vs 3d -1.89, 30d vs 7d -0.91) and a soft crypto-structural undertone (negative stablecoin/TOTAL3 flows, negative BTC ETF flows) — this argues for caution…
- 100% of beta book value sits in narratives with negative 30d momentum vs TOTAL3ES; this is context, not itself a sell trigger for any single holding.
Top aggregate candidates — 7-day lookback , as of 15 August 2026
Aggregate signal · Risk reject
What this teaches the future Fund Agent
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Archive
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